The LSI Public Opinion Survey in October 2006 found that after two years at the helm, President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Vice President Jusuf Kalla and the government continue to enjoy wide public support and confidence at a high 67% said LSI (Lembaga Survey Indonesia) Executive Director, Saiful Mujani. 

In his introduction, explaining LSI Public Opinion Survey results for October 2006 on Metro TV, Mujani said that one must bear in mind that this survey is meant to measure indications of public support of, and confidence in the government, and may differ from opinions expressed by economic and political experts. This survey shows how the people actually feel about their government despite comments to the contrary in the mass media or by experts. This fact is important because it is the people, who, after all choose their representatives in the general elections and the president in the presidential elections.   

Conducted in September, the survey interviewed 1,239 respondents, with a 2.8% of tolerance and at a 95% credibility rate. 

Since President Yudhoyono and Vice President Jusuf Kalla won a landslide victory by gaining the majority popular vote of 61% in the presidential elections in October 2004, a survey made one month later showed that both leaders enjoyed 80% public support. However, this optimism fell sharply to 64% one year later, and slid even further to 55% after the government doubled the price of fuel at the pumps, said the LSI survey. 

As a result, the number of poor people in increased by 4 million compared to the year before (2004-2005), a rise of 1.79%, according to the social economic survey of March 2006. September 2005 was the lowest point in public confidence towards President Yudhoyono’s government. Nonetheless, LSI found that the presidential team still remained popular at 55%, although at this point, unemployment had increased from 10.5 million (in 2005) to 11.1 million (March 2006), an increase of 0.35%.   

However, after March 2006, when economic indicators gradually improved, confidence in the government rose commensurately. Meanwhile, in the second quarter of 2006, the Indonesian economy grew by 5.2%, and is still expected to improve further to 5.8% this year, up from 5.4% last year. Meantime, bank interest rates are still coming down, while the Rupiah has remained relatively stable. 

Where in November 2004, some 23% of respondents thought that the country’s economy was improving, in October 2006 this number increased to 29%. On the other hand, where 36% of respondents thought that the economy fared worse, this number has now increased to 43% as results showed in the October survey this year.  

Indeed, LSI is of the opinion that among issues that are felt still wanting in the management of the government are the issues of poverty, unemployment, stability of daily commodities prices, and stable fuel prices at the pumps. Whereas, improvements were thought made in the management of the Rupiah vis-à-vis the US Dollar, and in efforts to attract investments. Additionally, positive efforts were perceived in solving the issues of infrastructure, such as construction of roads, electric power and water supply, and similar. 

But, in all, the LSI survey found, the public felt that positive results were indeed achieved by this government in the economy, and this fact positively improved public satisfaction with the performance of the Yudhoyono-Kalla government. In addition, the public was also happy with achievements made in the areas of politics, safety and security. 

Performance of Ministers considered “average” 

When measuring performance by individual Ministers and Ministries, all Ministries were given an average rating, with the Indonesian Military – TNI – coming out on top receiving a score of 3.86 (good score: 3.52-4.5; average: 2.5-3.5; very good: 4.5 – 5.0; and bad score: 1.5-2.5), and  the Ministry of Forestry given the lowest rating by respondents at 3.27%. The Ministry of Health was given a 3.76 score, Culture and Tourism came at number 8 with a 3.64 score. The Ministry of Transportation was given a 3.6 score, Industry 3.56, Trade 3.54, Finance 3.48.  In all, all Ministries scored “ average”, not excellent, but also not bad. 

In the field of politics, comparing performance of President SBY with leaders of other parties including  Megawati, Akbar Tanjung, Amien Rais, Wiranto, Hidayat Nurmahmudin and Ryaas Rasyid, some 37% of respondents chose SBY, 27% chose Megawati, while all others mentioned (16 names in all) together managed a 28% result. 

To the final, open-ended question, which gave no specific names, asking respondents as  to who they would choose should elections take place today, Bambang Yudhoyono scored a high 51%; trailing second by Megawati at 13%, with a poor  2.4%  for all “Others”, while the “Do not know”s are at 2%. 

LSI, therefore, concluded that the high rate of satisfaction as expressed by the public towards the incumbent president offers a large opportunity for President Yudhoyono to be re-elected. 

The survey concluded that satisfaction on the overall performance of the presidential team Yudhoyono-Kalla are closely tied to public perceptions as to how economic issues were handled, the overall performance of the economic team in the cabinet , the areas of politics, safety and security, besides a general evaluation on national economic conditions. Whereas, the area of Public Welfare seems not to have a large impact on public opinion, considering that improvements were made in the economy, politics and safety and security.  This means that economic and political factors are the most important determinants in public perception whether the incumbent presidential team will be re-elected by the people come 2009. 

In conclusion LSI Executive Director Mujani commented that with the above results, the Yudhoyono-Kalla team - for now - does not seem to have any serious contender for the presidency in the eyes of the people. This situation may of course decline and change should disappointments occur in future in the areas of the economy, politics and security before ’s next general elections to be held in 2009, three years hence. Other political parties aiming to win the next elections, therefore, had best heed these survey results, said Mujani. They need to boost the image of new presidential candidates if they intend to win the next elections, since it appears that the old names seem no longer to be attractive.    

Commenting on the survey results, Presidential spokesperson, Andi Mallarangeng, said that the President’s first question to him when he reported the results of the survey to President Yudjoyono was:” where are the results rated lowest and need improvements?” While to the question whether the President now feels more confident to being re-elected in the next elections, Andi said that at the moment the President wishes to concentrate more on work that still needs to be done, including the alleviation of poverty, education, public health and improving employment opportunities. 

(Sources: LSI website, Metro TV, Kompas)                                                             (Tuti Sunario)